September 2026 Market Update: Steady Shares, Rising Bond Yields and Ethical Investing

Welcome to our market update for the September quarter of 2026. In the video below I walk through how markets performed, why volatility is a normal part of investing, what’s happening in the bond market, and the long-term trade-offs of ethical investing. If you’d rather read than watch, the main points are below.

How markets performed in the September quarter

Global shares stayed resilient, with small positive returns across the major benchmarks. Strong company earnings drove it, as they have for much of the rally of the last few years.

Importantly, it isn’t narrow. Earnings are supporting share prices in the US, Europe and Japan. And the AI rally has spread beyond a handful of large US companies to businesses across many industries. Both are encouraging signs for the outlook.

Here’s how the main markets did over the quarter, including dividends:

Market	September quarter 2026
S&P 500 (US)	+2.1%
FTSE 100 (UK)	+2.0%
ASX 200 (Australia)	+2.0%
Euro Stoxx (Europe)	Flat
Vanguard All Growth portfolio	+1.0%

The Vanguard All Growth portfolio will be familiar to many Rising Tide clients. Its 1% comes after several strong years: its three, five and 10 year returns all sit in the low double digits. After a run like that, it’s normal for markets to take a breather.

Inflation and interest rates

Central banks are becoming more hawkish. In plain terms, interest rates are likely to go higher than many people expected. Inflation is back on the radar, and oil prices, pushed up by the conflict in the Middle East, are a big part of that.

Volatility is part of the journey

Share markets fall at some point in almost every year. If you look at the ASX 200 year by year, the market has often dropped by double digits during the year, sometimes by a lot. Yet it has typically finished the 12 months ahead.

So how do we manage it at Rising Tide? We keep a regular investment program going, we stay consistent, and we keep your investment strategy lined up with the goals we set together at your annual review. Falls don’t feel good when they happen, but they’re part of investing.

What’s happening in the bond market

Ten year government bond yields in Australia, the US, Germany and Japan have all risen over the last few years. There are a few reasons:

• Inflation has been higher than expected and is sticking around longer than most hoped.
• Government debt and deficits across the major developed economies remain high, and are growing.
• Demand for capital is strong. Think about how much AI companies are spending around the world. More demand for money pushes up its price, and that pushes bond yields up.

Many investors use bond yields as a hurdle rate for other investments, so higher yields matter, and it’s something we’re watching closely. Our approach doesn’t change, though. Like volatility, we stick to a disciplined investment approach built for the long term, and we don’t react to short-term market moves.

If bond yields or the recent volatility in share markets worry you, please talk to your Rising Tide adviser.

Ethical investing: the short-term trade-off

Ethical portfolios have faced headwinds lately, and that’s by design. The companies they screen out are the ones that have done best recently: defence companies and commodity companies, both lifted by the conflict in the Middle East. Those companies have little or no place in ethical portfolios, so ethical indices have lagged.

Over the last year, the ethical option we compared returned 6.9%, against 8% for a typical index option. Over longer periods the two have performed about the same, and in some periods the ethical option has done better.

Does this change our long-term view of ethical portfolios? No. There is a trade-off in the short term, but we think it’s small, and over the long term we think it’s minimal. We have a range of ethical options, inside and outside super. If ethical investing interests you, speak to your adviser and we’ll work through it with you.

What this means for you

• Shares had a steady quarter after several strong years.
• Falls during the year are normal. A regular plan tied to your goals matters more than any one quarter.
• Rising bond yields are worth watching, not reacting to.
• Ethical investing has a short-term cost right now, which we expect to be small over the long term.

For more on how we invest, read our guide to investment portfolio management, our explainer on ETFs and how they work, and how much value a financial adviser adds. You can also see how we help with wealth management.

Not a Rising Tide client yet? Book a free intro call and we’ll talk through where your money is headed. Our next update will come after Christmas.

Marcus Boadle is a Financial Planner at Rising Tide Financial.

This article is general information only. It doesn’t take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and it isn’t personal financial advice. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider whether the information suits your circumstances, or speak with a qualified adviser, before acting.

This article was written from Marcus Boadle’s September 2026 video update. AI helped turn the video into an article, and our team checked it before publishing.